Service Analytics Research Group

News

New publication in Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management

Jul 01, 2021

New paper on "Nonparametric estimation of customer segments from censored sales panel data" byJohannes F. Jörg and Catherine Cleophas published in the Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/s41272-021-00339-6

Abstract:
Specifically addressing different customer segments via revenue management or customer relationship management, lets firms optimize their market response. Identifying such segments requires analysing large amounts of transactional data. We present a nonparametric approach to estimate the number of customer segments from censored panel data. We evaluate several model selection criteria and imputation methods to compensate for censored observations under different demand scenarios. We measure estimation performance in a controlled environment via simulated data samples, benchmark it to common clustering indices and imputation methods, and analyse an empirical data sample to validate practical applicability.

New publication in Journal of Health Care Management Science

May 27, 2021

New paper on "Patients, primary care, and policy: agent-based simulation modeling for health care decision support" by Martin Comis, Catherine Cleophas and Christina Büsing published in the Journal of Health Care Management Science

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10729-021-09556-2

Abstract:
Primary care systems are a cornerstone of universally accessible health care. The planning, analysis, and adaptation of primary care systems is a highly non-trivial problem due to the systems’ inherent complexity, unforeseen future events, and scarcity of data. To support the search for solutions, this paper introduces the hybrid agent-based simulation model SiM-Care. SiM-Care models and tracks the micro-interactions of patients and primary care physicians on an individual level. At the same time, it models the progression of time via the discrete-event paradigm. Thereby, it enables modelers to analyze multiple key indicators such as patient waiting times and physician utilization to assess and compare primary care systems. Moreover, SiM-Care can evaluate changes in the infrastructure, patient behavior, and service design. To showcase SiM-Care and its validation through expert input and empirical data, we present a case study for a primary care system in Germany. Specifically, we study the immanent implications of demographic change on rural primary care and investigate the effects of an aging population and a decrease in the number of physicians, as well as their combined effects.

New publication in Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management

Apr 30, 2021

New paper on "Clustering as an approach for creating data-driven perspectives on air travel itineraries" by Sebastian Vock, Laurie A. Garrow and Catherine Cleophas published in the Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/s41272-021-00323-0

Abstract:
This paper proposes to create data-driven perspectives on airline ticketing data by defining groups of air travel itineraries independently of geographical or temporal attributes. We demonstrate the approach by analysing an extensive empirical data set featuring ticketing data from several carriers as collected by the Airlines Reporting Corporation. The analysis compares five cluster quality indicators to evaluate effects of pre-processing and clustering decisions. Benchmarking the results against a more traditional geographical grouping demonstrates the potential for data-driven analysis. Finally, we highlight ways in which the resulting cluster perspectives could support demand forecasting, performance evaluation, and analyst interventions.

Paper on Outlier Detection published in European Journal of Operational Research

Jan 08, 2021

New Paper on "Identifying and Responding to Outlier Demand in Revenue Management" by Nicola Rennie, Catherine Cleophas, Adam M. Sykulski and Florian Dost published in the European Journal of Operational Research. The European Journal of Operational Research is ranked “A” in the VHB JOURQUAL list.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2021.01.002

Abstract:
Revenue management strongly relies on accurate forecasts. Thus, when extraordinary events cause outlier demand, revenue management systems need to recognise this and adapt both forecast and controls. Many passenger transport service providers, such as railways and airlines, control the sale of tickets through revenue management. State-of-the-art systems in these industries rely on analyst expertise to identify outlier demand both online (within the booking horizon) and offline (in hindsight). So far, little research focuses on automating and evaluating the detection of outlier demand in this context. To remedy this, we propose a novel approach, which detects outliers using functional data analysis in combination with time series extrapolation. We evaluate the approach in a simulation framework, which generates outliers by  arying the demand model. The results show that functional outlier detection yields better detection rates than alternative approaches for both online and offline analyses. Depending on the category of outliers, extrapolation further increases online detection performance. We also apply the procedure to a set of empirical data to demonstrate its practical implications. By evaluating the full feedback-driven system of forecast and optimisation, we generate insight on the asymmetric effects of positive and negative demand outliers. We show that identifying instances of outlier demand and adjusting the forecast in a timely fashion substantially increases revenue compared to what is earned when ignoring outliers.

Registration for the Master Seminar in Winter 2020/2021 is open

Sep 02, 2020

In winter semester 2020/2021, the Research Groups „Supply Chain Management“ (Prof. Dr. Frank Meisel) and „Service Analytics“ (Prof. Dr. Catherine Cleophas) offer a research seminar on the following topic:

„Datenorientierte Planung im Unternehmenskontext“

More information regarding the registration and procedure of the seminar will soon be available on OLAT

UnivIs
More information

Online teaching in winter

Jul 17, 2020

In winter 2020/2021, the research group Service Analytics will continue online teaching. Lectures and exercises will be uploaded weekly as video files and downloadable for a limited time. Moreover, questions-and-answers-sessions will regularly take place via BigBlueButton. 

More information will be announced at the beginning of the term in the respective OpenOlat courses!

Early start of lectures

Apr 01, 2020

Dear students, 

deviating from our original plan, our lectures start at the 6th of April 2020.
Due to the current situation, the upcoming lectures and exercise courses will takes place online. Videos will be uploaded on OpenOlat.

Details and more information will follow during the next days on the respective OpenOlat-courses. 

We wish you a successful start for the summer term!

No regular office hours

Mar 17, 2020

Due to the current situation regarding the corona virus, the entire Service Analytics team works in the home office. Therefore, we offer no more personal office hours and will be available by email only. Depending on the concern, a consultation via video chat is possible. 

As soon as our research group returns to the regular office hours or we have further information, we will announce this here. 

Recent information on teaching: 
Temporary examination regulations for the WiSo Faculty
Teaching in summer term 2020

Please look out for announcements at the following central websites: 
News from CAU about the corona virus
News from the WiSo Faculty about teaching
Website of the examinations office

We thank you for your understanding and wish you good health!

PhD Seminar in March 2020

Mar 16, 2020

From the 10th to the 12th March 2020, Prof. Dr. Cleophas held a PhD Seminar on the topic „Simulation Modeling for Business Research“. The participants learned what needs to be considered when implementing a simulation project and how to integrate simulation into their research project.
For more information about the contents of this course, click here

We thank the doctoral candidates for their participation and useful feedback. 

Visitors from Lancaster

Mar 09, 2020

During the past weeks, two PhD students from Lancaster have been our guests.

Nicola Rennie visited us in February. Accompanied by Prof. Dr. Cleophas, she had a fruitful meeting with the practice partners of her project. She works on identifying demand outliers.
We were pleased to welcome Nicola for the second time in Kiel!

On the 4th of March, Mirjam Kirchner gave a presentation on her current research. Her work is about the detection of changepoints within networked data streams.
We thank her for the visit and the interesting presentation!

Announcement: PhD Seminar

Feb 27, 2020

In the summer term 2020 a PhD Seminar Doktorandenseminar on „Simulation Modeling for Business Research“ takes place. 

For more information regarding registration and general course click here.